Earth Threatened by Enormous Meteorite in 2032
amsterdam, woensdag, 25 juni 2025.
An enormous meteorite, known as 2024 YR4, has a 4.3 percent chance of striking the moon in 2032. This impact could be the largest in 5000 years, creating a crater approximately one kilometre in diameter. The debris ejected into space could enter Earth’s orbit within days, potentially resulting in an impressive meteor shower. Although this debris does not pose a direct threat to humans, it could be hazardous to satellites and spacecraft. Scientists and space agencies are closely monitoring the situation.
Discovery and Risks
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered just before the New Year by a telescope in Chile. Initially, the rock seemed to be heading towards Earth, with a 3 percent impact probability. After new calculations, this probability has dropped to 0.0017 percent. However, the chance that the asteroid will hit the moon remains and is estimated at about 4.3 percent according to observations from the James Webb Telescope [1][2].
Estimated Impact and Consequences
If the asteroid were to strike the moon, it could be the largest impact in 5000 years. The collision could create a crater about one kilometre in diameter and eject millions of kilograms of lunar debris into space. This debris could enter Earth’s orbit within days, potentially leading to a notable meteor shower. While this space debris does not pose a direct threat to humans as most of it will burn up in the atmosphere, it could be dangerous to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts [1][2][3].
International Oversight and Action
Space agencies such as NASA and ESA have been monitoring asteroids and comets that could pose a threat to the planet for some time. They are working on methods to deal with a potential collision. In 2022, NASA successfully altered the course of a space object, which was intended to protect Earth from future threats. The moon plays a lesser role in this context, although an impact there could still have significant consequences [1][2][4].
Further Research and Continuous Observation
New data will help map the size and trajectory of the asteroid more accurately. ESA is coordinating observations with more powerful telescopes, including the Very Large Telescope in Chile. 2024 YR4 may disappear from view before a 2032 impact can be fully ruled out. Scientists and space agencies will continue to monitor the situation closely and evaluate possible preventive actions [4][5].